Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates may win the National League Rookie of the Year. In one of the most fucked-up baseball developments I can remember, Skenes has only allowed more than three runs in a start once all season, and has not failed to pitch at least five complete innings since his first appearance with the Pirates, way back on May 11. He has more starts where he has allowed zero runs (four) than starts where he has allowed more than two runs (three). He doesn't qualify for any of the Baseball Reference leaderboards, but his 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings would rank second in the National League behind only Chris Sale of the Braves, and his .942 WHIP would be good for second in the majors, behind only Seattle's Logan Gilbert. He's just over a year from his first-ever professional appearance, and he's already one of the handful of best pitchers in baseball.
Given all of that, it's possibly freakier to suggest that Skenes might not win Rookie of the Year. He might not! Jackson Merrill, the extremely cool rookie center fielder for the Padres, is mounting a charge. He's more than held his own as a 21-year-old natural shortstop playing the most important outfield position, and his consistent and solid offensive production has been clutch for an otherwise top-heavy Padres lineup thinned out by key injuries. Baseball Reference says there are 23 fellows in the majors who've played at least 80 games in center field this season, and among that group Merrill ranks fourth in OPS+, and is tops in the National League. The only center fielder in baseball who has driven in more runs this season than Merrill is Aaron damn Judge.
I do not actually care to engage in awards debates. My purpose here is to point out that you have to be a pretty special rookie to be considered in a tier with Skenes, an overwhelming and terrifying force of nature. Merrill kicks a lot of ass, is the thing. He came to the plate Sunday with his Padres tied with the Mets in the bottom of the ninth inning, facing New York closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz missed outside with a couple of fastballs, and then attempted to get back into the count with an inside slider. This did not work. Merrill clobbered the bejesus out of the ball for his 19th dinger and second walk-off job of the season:
MLB says Merrill now has the most game-tying or go-ahead dingers in the ninth inning or later (five) in a season of any player his age in baseball history. No other player of any age this season has more than three.
The Padres have slid back a little from the top of the NL West, although they've got a comfortable three-game cushion in the second wild-card spot, and no one down the standings appears to be in any position to mount a serious ascent. San Diego is about to get better, and cooler: Yu Darvish was reinstated from the restricted list on Friday, threw three simulated innings Sunday morning, and is expected to return to their pitching rotation before the end of the season. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr., out since mid-June, has been taking batting practice and doing on-field drills, and said Friday that he's "definitely playing baseball next month." Barring setbacks or further injuries, this will be a buzzsaw of a wild-card team.
The Padres were in a weird position to start the season, out a superstar outfielder after trading Juan Soto to the Yankees. Their outfield was full of mystery, with a journeyman reclamation project starting in left, and shortstops starting in center and right. Tatis's injury aside, things could not have worked out better: Profar is a star, and Merrill is already right on the cusp. His teammates have already learned to expect the rookie to deliver in those big moments. Profar wasn't even surprised when Merrill's rocket sailed into the stands Sunday afternoon, saying after the game that "everyone in the dugout called it." He's barely even a big-leaguer, but Jackson Merrill is already a Dude.
