At the time of writing, on Dec. 2, 2024, Liverpool is nine points clear at the top of the Premier League table. The Pool Boys have been in torrid form domestically this season: 11 wins, one draw to second-place Arsenal, and one less-shocking-by-the-day loss to sixth-place Nottingham Forest. That run of 13 games includes wins over third-place Chelsea, fourth-place Brighton, and an always-pleasant thrashing of rival Manchester United. As of Sunday, it also includes a quite comfortable 2-0 victory over Manchester City, a club in full-blown crisis, insomuch as the Sky Blues can be in crisis; the loss to Liverpool threw City into fifth place, and the reigning champions have not won in seven matches across all competitions.
I've written about Liverpool's ascendancy and City's mucky status before, but Sunday's match was a clash between the two narrative forces defining the top of the Premier League. Liverpool came out on fire, as City perhaps foolishly chose to eschew tradition and force the hosts to attack the famed Kop side of Anfield, something Liverpool usually does in the second half. Perhaps Pep Guardiola was trying to throw off Liverpool's good vibes, and perhaps this didn't do much in reality, but Liverpool opened the match with 12 furious minutes of attacking, constantly pushing City back and overrunning a midfield that was missing three potential starters (more on this in a bit). By the time Cody Gakpo scored the well-deserved opener in that 12th minute, this felt like yet another dagger in City's heart.
It's been fun luxuriating in the schadenfreude of City's demise, given its status as the iron-fisted rulers of the Premier League for the past decade; save for Liverpool's COVID season title in 2020, no one other than City has won a Premier League title since Chelsea in 2017. This kind of comeuppance comes for every dynasty in every sport, and it appears to have come for City on the eve of a potential era-shattering penalty for its alleged financial improprieties. It's fitting, too, that Liverpool is the one reaping the rewards for City's failures; while Arsenal has been City's designated title rival for the past couple years, no one has been closer to City than the Reds of Merseyside, and though Guardiola's counterpoint Jürgen Klopp is gone, Liverpool has always been poised to pounce.
However, the rather large and limping elephant in the room is that City's current downfall has very little to do with any institutional rot or any figuring out of Guardiola's tactics. With regards to the former, there certainly is a sense of fetid water at City, with its generation of world-beaters barely hanging on while its younger replacements, save for Erling Haaland, have not quite panned out this season. As for Guardiola, he's been a top, maybe the top, manager for too long to think that he's suddenly lost his fastball. No, City's struggles are pretty straightforward: The champs are injured to hell, and it's slowly sapping their form.
Losing Rodri was of course City's headlining injury, but it's not just been him. The only even cognizable Rodri replacement on City's roster is Mateo Kovacic, and he's been out for a while too. Rúben Dias and Kevin De Bruyne, both foundational pieces in City's four-peating juggernaut, have missed significant time. Add in injuries to John Stones, Nathan Aké, Jérémy Doku, and Jack Grealish, and City has spent much of the season lacking both some of its most crucial figures as well as the absurd depth that has defined its success. The upshot in the Liverpool game was that Guardiola was forced to play the kind of midfield that might work on the FIFA (or whatever that series is called these days) video games, but that Liverpool picked apart so thoroughly: How is the quintet of Matheus Nunes (a natural central midfielder called to play out on the wing due to injuries), Phil Foden, Rico Lewis, Bernardo Silva, and Ilkay Gündogan supposed to offer any sort of defensive solidity?
The De Bruyne situation is also quite strange, as this is the type of game that a healthy and fit De Bruyne is built for. While a hamstring injury earlier in the season kept him out for about a month and a half, the Belgian has been by all accounts ready to go since Halloween, and yet he hasn't played over 45 minutes in a match since Sept. 14. There are rumblings that there is a rift between De Bruyne and Guardiola, and while that could just be tabloid nonsense to explain a tactical decision, it's the type of story that hasn't bothered City in its long stretch of dominance. Whatever the cause, De Bruyne subbed on for 12 minutes on Sunday and did little of consequence.
To go back to Liverpool, I won't discredit this statement win in what has been a dream start to Slot's tenure in England. The side has done it against everyone so far, remaining as the only perfect side in the Champions League first round (five wins in five matches), and City is just its latest victim. But Liverpool has also benefited from a good bill of health this season, and that's something City and also Arsenal, the other predicted title contender, can't say. In Arsenal's case, it's pretty easy to see the effect of first missing and then getting back its best midfield player: Martin Odegaard came back from a ankle injury on Nov. 6, and while the Gunners scored 23 goals in 12 matches across all competitions while he was out, they have scored 14 in his four matches since he's returned to the starting lineup. It's rarely so easy to see the impact one player has, and it helps explain Arsenal's stumbles that have dropped it off of Liverpool's pace.
And Liverpool too has dealt with its fair share of injuries: Alisson, Ibrahima Konaté, Conor Bradley, and Diogo Jota are all currently sidelined, and Trent Alexander-Arnold missed about three weeks in November. But Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk have been healthy and in unbelievable form, and that's often good enough for Liverpool. The latter has been as imperial as ever, and he had a few stoppages of City attacks on Sunday that called back to his best days at the top of the world's center back rankings. As for Salah, he has a strong claim for best player in the world this season, and he had an assist on Gakpo's goal against City as well as a converted penalty to hit that 2-0 scoreline.
While his contract status is in very public limbo, Salah is just as good this season as he has ever been, and that helps paper over some nicks and bruises up and down the depth chart in a way that both City and Arsenal have not been able to do in their stars' absences. If Liverpool continues to dodge major injuries to major players, it's hard to see how anyone catches up to them in the Premier League table. That's the thing about injuries, though. They can strike out of nowhere and on any player, and Liverpool is one stretch of bad luck away from joining their competitors in a dejected funk. That the bad luck hasn't arrived yet is a testament to the team's improved depth, particularly in midfield, but Liverpool is still missing a couple of pieces to weather any potential Salah or van Dijk injuries. Add in the fact that the Premier League will soon come upon its toughest stretch of the season around the holidays, with many games packed into about three weeks, and any premature coronations might look stupid come January.
This is especially true as City gets some of its injured stars back, even if Rodri is out for the year, and as Arsenal further rides the Odegaard bump. There won't be a cakewalk for anyone here, barring a historic run of both form and injury luck from Liverpool. The Reds could still run away with the league, but they need to make sure that they can run at all. If hamstrings start to strain, and ligaments begin to sprain, the form could flip quickly enough for the other teams to get right back into the title race. For now, though, Liverpool will be glad to have taken almost full advantage of its start, while Arsenal and especially City will be playing from behind.
