The two seismic NBA trades that took place over the weekend involved four Western Conference teams scattered across the standings. What links the deals together is that they both represent, to different degrees, bets on Victor Wembanyama.
The San Antonio angle is more obvious, but let us first consider the temporal rejiggering aspect of the Luka Doncic–Anthony Davis turbodeal. One theory of the Mavericks' decision to trade the best player on a team that made the Finals eight months ago is that they would be better set up to win big this year with Davis, as old as he is, than with Doncic, as injured as he currently is. Dallas clearly peeked up the standings, saw a largely untested Oklahoma City team that struggles with size—I'd note this premise is flawed since Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have yet to be healthy at the same time this season, but we are adopting the Nico Harrison position for this exercise, so—followed by the even more untested Rockets, a bizarro Grizzlies team that plays a Eurobasket style untested in the playoffs, the somewhat rickety Nuggets, and a bunch of teams with a bunch of old guys, and concluded that they could make a real run at contention right now. I don't think it's a stretch to think that Dallas also peeked down the standings and felt motivated to slam down the accelerator given the looming threat of Wembanyama, especially now that his Spurs are operating like a contender instead of a purpose-built lottery dweller.
In the two seasons since drafting Wembanyama, the San Antonio front office had only—before now—made win-later moves, like flipping the eighth pick for a 2031 first-rounder, starting a rookie point guard this season, and taking back players on value-negative contracts like Harrison Barnes. But Wembanyama is too good for any responsible front office to burn any more of his career, and the De'Aaron Fox trade officially ends that era of team-building. A star at the start of his prime maneuvering his way to San Antonio is a pretty serious endorsement of Wemby's talent, as is the decision to trade for and presumably max out that star.
So, what sort of team have the Spurs started building, and why does Fox make sense?
Fox spent three seasons playing alongside Domantas Sabonis, a guy who is about as different an all-star caliber center from Wembanyama as you could imagine. Where Wemby is reedy and pushable, Sabonis is made of steel and loves to bludgeon people. Wemby takes a million three-pointers and makes some of them, while Sabonis takes some threes and makes most of them. Wemby is a world-historic shotblocking force whose deterrence alone is probably worth another two blocks a game; Sabonis is 13th on his own team in block percentage. But perhaps the most significant difference between the two players is that Sabonis initiates offense and creates for everyone while Wemby finishes plays.
Thus, Fox will have the ball in his hands more than he did in Sacramento, and he'll be charged with opening up space for Wembanyama, which is not really something that anyone else on the Spurs can do. Wemby is a fantastic lob threat, roll man, and pick-and-pop guy held back, as much as anyone that great can be meaningfully held back, by his teammates' inability to generate many advantages for him. Chris Paul is a great passer, but he doesn't get into the paint on the bounce very often; Stephon Castle is extremely athletic but also extremely 20 years old. Fox, meanwhile, is the fastest player in the NBA and among its shiftiest drivers. As hypothetical Wemby partners go, it is probably smart to bet on one of most reliable advantage-creators in the game.
Imagine a vanilla Fox–Wemby pick-and-roll, with three shooters spreading the floor. (Those shooters are already giving excited quotes about how many wide-open shots they're going to get out of this action.) If you switch this, you are dead. Fox is one of the best guys in the league at turning the corner, and while the Kings did not run a ton of pick-and-roll with Fox handling, they were at their most unstoppable when they did so. Defenses will have to contend not just with Fox's speed but also the hilarious geometric challenges of Wemby; one of the things that makes him special is that otherwise difficult shots in floater range or even at the rim become simple dunks if he gets the ball with any kind of momentum within like 15 feet of the rim. Fox is a gifted passer into and out of tight spaces, and he's such a serious scoring threat that defenses will have no choice but to warp themselves to contain the action. In other words, a play like this probably would not result in a bricked midrange jumper, because Fox would penetrate like 10 feet further into the center of the defense.
Defensively, Fox has turned into a braggadocious perimeter agitant. My favorite sort of Fox play is when he gets right into the ball-handler's jersey when he's isolated in a ton of space. Rather than give himself an extra few inches to recover, Fox instead puts the onus on the ball-handler, keeping his hands low (or, pointedly, at his side when he's feeling extra spicy) and keeping his chest right in the action. The arrogance here speaks to Fox's confidence in his quickness, and more generally to the active, insistent way he likes to play. Fox forces you to react; not think through a flowchart but react. He led the league in steals per game last season, a super impressive accomplishment without a rim protector behind him. Wemby's shot-erasing abilities should deputize Fox to be even more aggressive on the perimeter.
Fox is the best teammate Wemby will have had through his short career; the question is whether he's actually good enough to be Wemby's best teammate on a title contender. One worry is the shooting, as Fox is a career 33.3 percent three-point shooter who has only surpassed 32.4 percent once in the six seasons he's taken more than three attempts per game. Even if you pursue Fox because of all the non-shooting stuff he does, it's absolutely a risk to trade real stuff for—then give a max contract to—a smallish guard who depends on athleticism to get buckets. Fox was Sacramento's best player, but he has also been on one all-star team in his career. As Cleveland's first effort to build a team around LeBron James proved, a single generational superstar is not enough, and there's a massive opportunity cost if you pick the wrong supporting cast.
Aside from all the reasons for optimism laid out above, the biggest one is that the Spurs barely had to give up anything in this trade. Chicago was happy enough to get rid of Zach LaVine in exchange for their own 2025 pick from San Antonio, and while the Kings pried away a bunch of future picks, the Spurs still control all but one of their own picks as well as three firsts and two swaps from other teams. The Spurs even kept all the best picks they'd hoarded from other teams, including Sacramento's own 2031 pick via a swap. Betting against the competence of the Sacramento Kings is one of the smartest things you can do. San Antonio also didn't give up any of its good young players, which means the Spurs can keep developing their team around Fox and Wemby and maintain the option to trade that stuff the next time they decide they want to make a big deal. In the meantime, Fox and Wemby will be fun as hell, and I'm excited to watch my favorite player in the league actually maybe win something.
