It wasn’t long ago that the Liberty were down bad. In 2017, owner James Dolan kicked the Liberty out of Madison Square Garden and sent them to the Knicks’ G-League arena in White Plains, New York, where they played in front of crowds that you would expect at a rural high school basketball game. The roster fell apart and between 2018 and 2022 they won 47 of 158 games.
What a difference a change in ownership makes. In 2019, Dolan sold the team to Joseph and Clara Wu Tsai, who moved the Liberty to Brooklyn in 2021. They immediately got to work turning New York into a WNBA super team, plucking MVP winners Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones out of free agency, teaming them up with 2020 No. 1 overall pick Sabrina Ionescu and champion point guard Courtney Vandersloot. The results in 2023 were everything they could have expected in the regular season. The Liberty’s quad-star lineup went 32-8 and they outscored opponents by an average of 8.6 points per game.
The problem? The Las Vegas Aces were still better. In 2023, the Aces went 34-6, joining only five other teams in history that produced an 85-percent win percentage in the regular season. In the playoffs, the Aces and Liberty made the Finals and New York failed to push Vegas to a Game 5 despite several key injuries in the Aces’ lineup. Aces guard Kelsey Plum insinuated the Liberty’s super team was more a super bunch of individuals, saying: “As much as they’re a team, they’re not a team, if that makes sense.”
While it's hard to find any statistical evidence of the 2023 Liberty lacking in chemistry considering they ranked highly in nearly every category, including the percentage of field goals that were assisted on (first) and the opponent's field goal percentage (first), there were lulls during the season that we didn't expect, and the gap between the Aces and Liberty's chemistry was apparent in the Finals.
But the Liberty came back stronger this year. While they reproduced the same 32-8 record they had in 2023, they outscored opponents by even more(+9.2 points per game differential, No. 1 in the league) and the super trio of Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu produced more combined win shares than any other group of three players on the same club, with Stewart ranking second only behind MVP A’ja Wilson, Jones ranking fourth, and Ionescu eighth.
According to Her Hoop Stats, the Liberty are the third best club in the league in effective field goal percentage, and hold opposing teams to the second lowest eFG%. They are second in points per scoring attempt and second-best in points per scoring attempt against. They are the best in terms of rebound percentage, second in assist-to-turnover ratio, and they foul less than anyone per game. Basically, if there is a data point for it, the Liberty are in the top three. Meanwhile, the Aces experienced something of a down year, going 27-13 with a +5.5 point differential and entering the playoffs as a No. 4 seed. Las Vegas did win nine of their last 10 regular-season games, making them the hottest team heading into the playoffs, but the Liberty are still the best team in the bracket.
At least they will be until the games start. As incredible as the Liberty might be by the numbers, there is still a feeling of fragility here. How can a team this freaking good still feel vulnerable?
Plum’s comment still rings out. Earlier this year the Liberty lost a matchup with the Minnesota Lynx for the Commissioner’s Cup. In the 94-89 loss to Minnesota, Jones went 0-for-3 shooting in 34 minutes and Ionescu only made 2-of-11 three-point attempts. It was a bizarre no-show that was reminiscent of their elimination loss to the Aces, in which Stewart made just three of 17 shots and Jones scored six points in a 70-69 defeat. Ionescu never really rebounded from that performance—since the all-star break she’s shooting 36.2 percent from the floor and just 30.3 percent from three-point range.
While the Aces might not be as threatening as they were last year, the Lynx have taken their place as the scariest team in the W not named New York. Minnesota is the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the league and No. 1 team in opponents points per 100 possessions. Earlier this week, the Lynx needed a win over the Liberty to help solidify their No. 2 seed and they held Ionescu to 4-for-21 shooting in an 88-79 win over New York.
If the playoffs go chalk, the Liberty’s path to a ring would be facing the Aces in Round 2 and the Lynx in the Finals.
No matter who they play, the Liberty will be favored. That’s what a 32-8 record buys you, but as this team already proved last season, it doesn’t guarantee a championship. This postseason presents the Liberty with a perfect opportunity to prove that they are indeed as great of a team as their record over the last two seasons has indicated, and it’s the kind of opportunity they might not get again soon. What if Stewart leaves in free agency this winter? What if Vandersloot retires? What if Ionescu's drop in shooting efficiency from 2023, when she made 44.3 percent from three-point land, is who she really is?
As for the rest of the league, the Lynx are going nowhere. They won 30 games this year behind MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, and the Aces don’t look ready to fall off. If Indiana continues to grow around Caitlin Clark like they did in the second half of the season, they could contend for super-team status as soon as next season. And with a lot of free agents this offseason, you never know who else might be plotting. This isn’t exactly a now-or-never situation for the Liberty, but if they want to ensure that they are ultimately remembered as a successful juggernaut rather than a dispiriting disappointment, they won’t want to blow the opportunity that is in front of them.
